XRP retook the $0.60 mark on July 26, gaining 0.53% after a 2.99% fall the previous day. Despite this, XRP lagged behind the broader market, which saw a 3.13% rally, bringing the total crypto market cap to $2.369 trillion.
SEC Closed Meeting: Settlement or Appeal?
Hopes were high on Thursday as speculation about Ripple’s attendance at the SEC’s closed meeting to discuss settlement terms drove XRP to a July 17 high of $0.6378. However, the SEC’s continued silence left investors disappointed.
Several possibilities explain the SEC’s silence:
Further discussion on settlement terms.
Ripple’s refusal to settle.
Ripple’s absence from the meeting.
A settlement would halt the SEC’s plans to appeal Judge Torres’s rulings. In August 2023, the SEC’s Motion for Interlocutory Appeal regarding Programmatic Sales of XRP was rejected by Judge Torres, meaning the SEC must wait until the Ripple case concludes to appeal any court rulings.
During settlement talks, the SEC might focus on post-complaint activities, Ripple’s US expansion plans, and their stablecoin initiatives.
Remedies-Related Briefs
In March 2024, the SEC filed a remedies-related opening brief, seeking a $2 billion penalty and an injunction against XRP sales to institutional investors. The SEC argued that Ripple continued violating US securities laws post-complaint.
Ripple’s response in April 2024 suggested a $10 million penalty, asserting that post-complaint XRP sales did not breach US securities laws as they were either:
To accredited investors, exempt from US securities laws, or
Through On-Demand Liquidity (ODL) agreements, preventing profit or loss.
Ripple’s ODL terms are crucial since they challenge the Howey Test’s expectation of profit.
In its April 2024 reply, the SEC maintained that post-complaint activities mirrored those leading to the July 2023 ruling and claimed Ripple’s stablecoin breached US securities laws.
Given the court rulings and the briefs, a settlement seems improbable.
Expert Opinions
Pro-crypto lawyer Bill Morgan commented on the settlement speculation, stating, “This is unlikely to happen but if it does it is a compromise not a big win. It means both parties give up something.”
Former SEC lawyer Marc Fagel added, “I’ve tried to patiently explain to people what closed meetings are, how they work, and why a settlement (if it existed) likely wouldn’t even be calendared at one (as presumably the sole person here who used to attend them).”
Settlement Impact
If the SEC and Ripple settle, XRP could surge past the $1.00 mark. On July 13, 2023, XRP reacted to a court filing, jumping from $0.4696 to $0.9327. Conversely, the threat of an SEC appeal against the Programmatic Sales ruling could push XRP below $0.40.
Daily Chart Analysis
XRP remains above the 50-day and 200-day EMAs, indicating bullish signals. A break above the July 17 high of $0.6378 could pave the way to the $0.6609 resistance level and potentially the $0.70 handle.
Conversely, a drop below the $0.5739 support level could signal a decline toward the 200-day EMA. With a 14-day RSI reading of 61.56, XRP might climb to the July 17 high of $0.6378 before reaching overbought territory.