Today, the crypto market is abuzz with the impending expiration of nearly $1.85 billion in Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH) options. Market participants are closely monitoring these expirations, which could lead to increased volatility and significant price fluctuations.
Macroeconomic Factors and Options Expiry: How They Shape Crypto Prices
According to Deribit’s data, 23,832 Bitcoin contracts, worth approximately $1.37 billion, are set to expire today. This number surpasses last week’s figures of 18,339 contracts. The expiring contracts have a put-to-call ratio of 1.09, with a maximum pain point of $58,500. In the crypto options market, the maximum pain point represents the price level that inflicts the most financial discomfort on option holders, while the put-to-call ratio indicates a prevalence of purchase options (calls) over sales options (puts).
Alongside Bitcoin options, 156,792 Ethereum contracts will also expire today, holding a notional value of over $488.05 million. Ethereum’s put-to-call ratio is 0.38, with a maximum pain point of $3,100.
Broader Economic Influences on the Crypto Market
This week, the crypto market has been influenced by broader economic factors. On July 11, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data, showing a 3% year-over-year (YoY) inflation rate for June, which was lower than market expectations.
Despite these economic updates, Bitcoin briefly reached $59,000, while Ethereum was trading at $3,105, showing slight increases. These positive developments occurred despite market pressure from significant Bitcoin sell-offs by the German and US governments.
Adam, an analyst at the crypto options tool Greeks.live, provided insights into the current sentiment in the crypto options market. “The overall [implied volatility] IV level has rebounded significantly. If you choose a higher IV, you can open a sell order. The large amount of funds delivered in the quarter will smash the IV back at any time,” he wrote.